Description

This analysis provides a forecast of NEAR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 3.202009 3.697864 4.246639 4.899319 5.654891 6.502647 7.526857
2024-10-27 2.374395 2.978085 3.703925 4.642061 5.824444 7.267877 9.168071
2024-11-03 1.994734 2.689075 3.586692 4.834816 6.530302 8.760459 11.928943
2024-11-10 1.737247 2.498379 3.548484 5.107999 7.374823 10.564916 15.422609
2024-11-17 1.491732 2.273908 3.418234 5.221958 8.009712 12.181467 18.948854
2024-11-24 1.276428 2.051316 3.247046 5.236953 8.489863 13.639400 22.492914
2024-12-01 1.064403 1.794739 2.977710 5.046343 8.605820 14.538657 25.298498
2024-12-08 0.890775 1.569680 2.719446 4.823875 8.620401 15.257200 27.904947
2024-12-15 0.797363 1.464911 2.644147 4.898035 9.151287 16.931749 32.477161
2024-12-22 0.692334 1.321923 2.478344 4.779148 9.306116 17.944338 35.981725
2024-12-29 0.653946 1.296225 2.521527 5.056547 10.251728 20.582350 43.105544
2025-01-05 0.606927 1.246066 2.509616 5.221842 10.998024 22.940484 50.065108
2025-01-12 0.548627 1.167244 2.435268 5.260971 11.519105 24.982759 56.868378
2025-01-19 0.471469 1.037263 2.237154 5.007107 11.372743 25.592178 60.628805
2025-01-26 0.444210 1.010900 2.254707 5.230471 12.330060 28.805552 71.070407
2025-02-02 0.425256 1.000112 2.304747 5.536663 13.534548 32.799888 84.212092
2025-02-09 0.395692 0.960012 2.281984 5.666965 14.340019 35.986943 95.972824
2025-02-16 0.362591 0.906198 2.218731 5.687428 14.875576 38.601647 106.770257
2025-02-23 0.320909 0.824661 2.075970 5.482582 14.793304 39.619297 113.426225
2025-03-02 0.282779 0.746232 1.929049 5.241978 14.572189 40.226610 119.038978
2025-03-09 0.264362 0.716660 1.903162 5.323699 15.255163 43.430835 132.932843
2025-03-16 0.238638 0.663484 1.807123 5.194849 15.317688 44.896706 141.873870
2025-03-23 0.232860 0.664667 1.858717 5.497359 16.700913 50.463516 164.881076